Inbound cigarette smuggling rate in Connecticut estimated at 21.4%

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The inflow of smuggled cigarettes in Connecticut is 21.4 percent, according to a new study from the Tax Foundation that examines the relationship between cigarette taxes and smuggling.

A key result of high excise taxes on cigarettes is an increased flow of black market cigarettes into the state, according to the analysis. Criminal enterprises purchase and move cigarettes from low-tax to high-tax states for a profit.

Connecticut had a consumption smuggling rate of 12.3 percent in 2006, the Tax Foundation reported. (A positive rate represents inflow, while a negative rate represents outflow.) The state’s cigarette tax in 2017 – the most recent data examined – was $3.90 per pack.

Between 2006 and 2017, the cigarette tax in Connecticut increased 158 percent, according to the analysis. Nationwide, cigarette tax rates rose in 37 states over that time period.

The study is based on statistical studies done by scholars at the Mackinac Center for Public Policy in Michigan. International smuggling of cigarettes is also a major concern, according to the report. 

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Cigarette Smuggling Rates, State by State

State2017 Tax2017 Consumption Smuggled (positive is inflow, negative is outflow)2006 Consumption Smuggled (positive is inflow, negative is outflow)2017 RankRank Change since 2016Excise Tax Rate change 2006-2017
Alabama$0.68-2.50%0.50%34159%
Alaska$2.00NANANANA25%
Arizona$2.0039.29%32.10%5-369%
Arkansas$1.156.29%3.90%262no change
California$2.8744.55%34.60%25230%
Colorado$0.848.82%16.60%231no change
Connecticut$3.9021.40%12.30%114158%
Delaware$1.60-40.55%-61.50%46-2191%
Florida$1.3415.16%6.90%163294%
Georgia$0.37-4.80%-0.30%361no change
Idaho$0.57-26.77%-6.00%451no change
Illinois$1.9817.20%13.70%151102%
Indiana$1.00-18.81%-10.80%42-179%
Iowa$1.3610.57%2.40%220278%
Kansas$1.2921.81%18.40%10463%
Kentucky$0.60-9.25%-6.40%380100%
Louisiana$1.0811.77%6.40%201200%
Maine$2.008.28%16.60%250no change
Maryland$2.0011.35%10.40%21-3100%
Massachusetts$3.5124.99%17.50%80132%
Michigan$2.0020.55%31.00%14-1no change
Minnesota$3.5934.62%23.60%6-1149%
Mississippi$0.683.32%-1.70%29136%
Missouri$0.17-17.10%-11.30%400no change
Montana$1.7021.34%31.20%120no change
Nebraska$0.64-0.67%12.00%320no change
Nevada$1.80-11.85%4.80%39-33125%
New Hampshire$1.78-65.04%-29.70%470123%
New Jersey$2.70-0.50%38.40%31-513%
New Mexico$1.6640.76%39.90%4082%
New York$4.3555.35%35.80%10190%
North Carolina$0.45NANANANA50%
North Dakota$0.44-18.66%3.00%41-2no change
Ohio$1.608.49%13.10%24-128%
Oklahoma$1.031.03%9.60%301no change
Oregon$1.324.19%21.10%28-112%
Pennsylvania$2.6014.73%12.90%171793%
Rhode Island$3.7514.37%43.20%18-152%
South Carolina$0.57-1.40%-8.10%33014%
South Dakota$1.5313.52%5.30%191189%
Tennessee$0.62-2.78%-4.50%351210%
Texas$1.4125.18%14.80%72244%
Utah$1.7022.13%12.90%92145%
Vermont$3.084.77%4.50%27272%
Virginia$0.30-24.21%-23.50%44-2no change
Washington$3.0342.79%38.20%3049%
West Virginia$1.20-5.81%-8.40%376118%
Wisconsin$2.5221.20%13.10%13-3227%
Wyoming$0.60-22.36%-0.60%432no change
Source: Tax Foundation

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